The estimated number of deaths attributable to heat in Alicante province during 17–23 August has risen to about 43. Figures from Spain’s Carlos III Health Institute, checked on Thursday, put Alicante’s absolute total above those of the other two Valencian provinces. The region’s combined estimate for the week is close to 100.
On Monday, EFE reported an estimate of 40 for Alicante and 96 for the Valencian Community. The latest download from MoMo, Spain’s daily mortality monitoring system, gives 43.05 for Alicante, 30.78 for Castellón and 25.65 for Valencia, totalling 99.48. The decimal values reflect statistical modelling. The increase does not represent three additional deaths occurring after Sunday: it is a revised estimate for the same seven days.
Alicante accounts for roughly 43% of the regional weekly total. That share describes the distribution of estimated deaths, not an individual’s risk of dying from heat. Comparing risks across the three provinces would also require accounting for population size and age.
The summer trend differs between provinces
For 21 June to 23 August, the current series estimates about 228 deaths attributable to heat in Alicante, compared with roughly 234 over the same dates in 2025. That is a small decline of around 2%. The region-wide increase therefore cannot simply be assumed to apply to Alicante too.
Over that identical period, Castellón’s estimate rises from about 82 to 102, and Valencia’s from about 34 to 131. These comparisons use matching dates in both years, rather than setting an unfinished summer against the whole of the previous season.
Heat and cold also need to be kept separate. From the start of the year to 25 August, Alicante’s estimated toll is about 241 deaths attributable to high temperatures and another 12 to low temperatures. Adding both columns together and calling the result heat mortality would misrepresent the figures.
MoMo’s documentation explains that the model estimates the effect indirectly from mortality and temperature data. It is not a register of diagnosed heatstroke deaths. Recent estimates may change as delayed death notifications arrive.
The downloaded series runs through 25 August. The next complete weekly figures will include the remaining days and may revise earlier estimates again. A final August total is not yet available.